A new poll has Labor showing an early lead in the 2025 federal election amid voter anger over the Coalition’s weak stance on mass immigration.
The Newspoll survey conducted between March 27 and 29 for The Australian has Labor in front by two percentage points on a two-party-preferred basis, up two points in the last three weeks.
The government’s primary vote is also up a point to 33% – its best result in 2025 – while the Coalition’s has fallen 2% to its worst result this year of 37%. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s personal approval rating hit a six-month high of 43%, while Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s fell to 39%.
The Greens are steady at 12%, One Nation are down one point to 6%, and all other parties are up two points to 12% but still below the 14.5% the combined minor parties achieved during the 2022 election.
The poll results came as Australians vented their frustration at the immigration policies of both major parties and implored Mr Dutton to address what many are calling the number one issue this election.
Labor now at $1.80 with coalition at $2.00.
Slash taxes for families. Slash migration. Make it happen. https://t.co/enOt2mFLV3 pic.twitter.com/SNu8Oh8Jfn
— Brian Marlow (@BrianTaxpayers) March 25, 2025
“Dutton campaign so far: Day 1 – Meets with the Chinese in Sunnybank. Announces $225k for a Chinese history museum. Day 2 – Attends an Assyrian festival in Fairfield and then over to the Leppington mosque for a Ramadan event. $25k for CCTV cameras. What’s in store for Day 3?” wrote one person on X.
“Another day, another cheap stunt, another peripheral issue. Anything to avoid talking about immigration eh? You are a milquetoast loser who’s too afraid to take on the big issues and the vested interests. Enjoy your next term in opposition,” said another in response to a post from Mr Dutton about energy prices.
“Immigration? Peter? Mention it please? Slightly more important than bricks,” wrote a third voter.
“Immigration needs to be the number one issue in the Australian election,” wrote Dr Russell McGregor in response to independent journalist Laurence McIntyre being thrown out of a press conference for asking Mr Albanese about the topic.
In his budget reply speech on Thursday night Mr Dutton pledged to reduce permanent migration by 25%, which would bring the total down to between 140 and 160,000, mirrored Labor’s policy of cracking down on foreign home ownership for two years, and promised caps on foreign students.
But ahead of his address conservatives and libertarians had urged Mr Dutton to take a tougher stance on the issue in order to win over the 80% of Australian voters who want immigration cut.
ATTENTION : Peter Dutton.
Labor are now favourites to form the next government in partnership with the Greens and/or Teals.
Your “small target” approach is about to fail. It’s time to have a go.
Rip up the Budget in Reply speech you’ve written, and announce these… pic.twitter.com/DO2V2uE6xn
— Craig Kelly – Libertarian for NSW Senate (@craigkellyXXX) March 26, 2025
Liberal MP turned Libertarian Party NSW Senate candidate Craig Kelly described Mr Dutton’s current strategy as “small target” and “about to fail”, and suggested “net zero migration until infrastructure can catch up”.
Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance Executive Director Brian Marlow also addressed a series of posts to Mr Dutton last week, recommending he bring in “massive family-first tax cuts” and “slash migration”.
“Tax cuts are just one issue. Migration should be the other. To rebuild momentum, [the Coalition] have to be bold. They have to let Peter Dutton off the leash so he can campaign like he did in 2024,” he wrote.
The only way the Liberal Party will win is if they position themselves as the ‘low immigration’ party against Labor.
The only way they can do that is to promise a drastic cut.
Tens of thousands, not hundreds of thousands.
— Migration Watch Australia (@migrationwaus) March 24, 2025
In another post in response to former Liberal National and One Nation MP George Christensen slamming Labor’s immigration policy, Mr Marlow wrote: “A nation that forgets its own people has no future.
“Mass migration is not compassionate, it’s cruel. Mass migration is cruel to young Australians priced out of the housing market. Mass migration is cruel to working families watching their wages stagnate while rents skyrocket.
“Mass migration is cruel to pensioners stuck on waiting lists for aged care and public housing. Mass migration is cruel to every taxpayer who sees their schools, hospitals, and roads overcrowded and under strain. It’s time to protect our people and our future. Put Australia First!”
Advocacy group Migration Watch Australia, which has regularly called on both major parties to cut migration, addressed a post to the Coalition last month saying it would lose if it did not distinguish itself from Labor.
“The only way the Liberal Party will win is if they position themselves as the ‘low immigration’ party against Labor. The only way they can do that is to promise a drastic cut. Tens of thousands, not hundreds of thousands,” MWA wrote.
